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Toward Sub-Sewershed Spatio-Temporal Wastewater Surveillance: A Critical Review and a Candidate Multimodal Foundation-Model Framework

Cuadros, Diego F., Xi Chen, and Ming Tang. 2026. “Toward Sub-Sewershed Spatio-Temporal Wastewater Surveillance: A Critical Review and a Candidate Multimodal Foundation-Model Framework” Environments 13, no. 7: 382. https://doi.org/10.3390/environments13070382

Wastewater-based epidemiology (WBE) has matured into a population-level surveillance complement with operational precedent in poliovirus environmental surveillance, institutionalised systems for SARS-CoV-2, and expanding evidence across respiratory pathogens, substance-use markers, and antimicrobial-resistance targets at uneven maturity. The unresolved problem is specific: sub-sewershed spatio-temporal inference under sewer-network and observational aggregation. Intra-catchment heterogeneity, hydraulic dynamics, and equity-relevant population differences can all be obscured by aggregate-scale modelling. Current artificial intelligence/machine learning (AI/ML) methods in WBE can be organised into four threads: temporal forecasting, spatial–statistical localisation, sewer-network and hydraulic transport, and cross-site transfer. These methods solve useful parts of the surveillance problem at the scales they target, but they do not yet supply transferable latent sub-sewershed representations under downstream aggregation. This review proposes a candidate multimodal foundation-model framework that treats place and time as jointly learnable entities, integrates a graph backbone over the sewer-network topology, incorporates physics-informed constraints, and embeds equity-conscious downstream validation as a design requirement. The framework is intended to make sub-sewershed hypotheses explicit, testable, uncertainty-bounded, and accountable to environmental-justice-relevant external validation. Whether those hypotheses survive empirical testing remains an open question.

Figure 1. The aggregation problem at the sub-sewershed scale.